inflation

Cyprus GDP expected to grow, inflation to continue decreasing

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Cyprus GDP expected to grow, inflation to continue decreasing

The European Commission’s interim winter forecast predicts that Cyprus will see further growth in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024, with an expected rise of 2.8 percent, and an increase of 3 percent in 2025. Inflation in Cyprus is forecasted to slow to 3.9 percent in 2023, down from 8.1 percent in 2022, and is expected to be further contained to 2.4 percent in 2024 and 2.1 percent in 2025. The main driver of GDP growth in Cyprus is projected to be strong domestic demand, with significant contributions from strategic investments and lower energy prices. Growth is also expected to be supported by investments from the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism. However, net exports are expected to contribute weakly to the economy due to economic uncertainty in Cyprus’ main trading partners and strong demand for imports driven by investments. The European Commission revised the growth forecasts for the EU and the eurozone for 2023 to 0.5 percent and adjusted the 2024 forecasts to 0.9 percent for the EU and 0.8 percent for the eurozone. Inflation in the EU is forecasted to decrease from 6.3 percent in 2023 to 3.0 percent in 2024, and further to 2.5 percent in 2025. In the Eurozone, inflation is projected to slow from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 2.7 percent in 2024, and to 2.2 percent in 2025.

UK in recession, but that, ’s unlikely to sway BoE

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UK in recession, but that, ’s unlikely to sway BoE

The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year with a steeper contraction in GDP than expected. The economy has been stagnant for the past couple of years and is expected to bounce back this year. Weaker household spending may suggest weaker demand than anticipated. Inflation is expected to fall, which could lead to a debate around rate cuts. Oil prices remain volatile due to uncertainty in the Middle East, the economy, and interest rates. Gold has dropped below ,000, indicating that rates may not fall as soon or as fast as hoped. Bitcoin has reached a new two-year high above ,500.

EC revises Cyprus GDP growth forecast upwards for 2024-2025

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EC revises Cyprus GDP growth forecast upwards for 2024-2025

The European Commission has published its Winter 2024 Economic Forecast, which lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. In Cyprus, real GDP growth slowed down to 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2023 compared to 5.8% for the same period in 2022. However, demand for tourism services continued to rebound in 2023, with arrivals increasing by 20.1%. Private consumption remained robust, supported by real wage increases and employment growth. For the whole of 2023, economic activity is expected to have grown by 2.4%. In 2024 and 2025, real GDP in Cyprus is expected to grow by 2.8% and 3% respectively. Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation in Cyprus is set to moderate to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

Inflation hits Valentine’s Day goods

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Inflation hits Valentine’s Day goods

The data collected by CyStat for January 2024 shows that prices of basic products and services on Valentine’s Day have increased compared to last year. The largest increase is in jewellery prices at 9.7%, followed by hotel and motel prices at 9.5%. Other increases include chocolates at 7.7%, hair salon prices at 6.3%, personal care treatments at 5.7%, restaurant and café prices at 5.6%, plants and flowers at 5.2%, and confectionery items at 3.8%. Smaller increases were recorded for wine prices, women’s clothing, men’s clothing, and watches. Prices at cinemas, theatres, and concerts dropped slightly, while stationery prices decreased by 3.4%.

“Do you have samurais fighting snakes?” -MPs comment on UCY budget

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“Do you have samurais fighting snakes?” -MPs comment on UCY budget

The University of Cyprus is facing controversy over its proposed budget. Concerns have been raised about the university’s financial sustainability due to projected deficits in the coming years. MPs have highlighted issues such as excessive cleaning costs, exploitation of student housing by external contractors, and alleged politicisation within the academia. The university has requested funds for travel expenses, rentals, legal expenses, and the Cyprus Cancer Research Institute. The Vice-Rector for International Relations, Economics, and Administration defended the budget, stating that external factors and increased operational expenses have impacted the institution’s finances. He also expressed concern about the low provision for maintenance of building facilities and the lack of budget for the Medical School.

CPI kills last hope for March Fed rate cut

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CPI kills last hope for March Fed rate cut

The U.S. inflation report for January showed higher-than-expected inflation across the board. The headline and core monthly readings were 0.3%, while the annual readings were 3.1% and 3.9% respectively. This data has decreased the likelihood of a rate cut in March and has caused a shift in market expectations. Previously, there were expectations of a rate cut and 175 basis points of rate cuts priced in for this year, but now only 75 basis points are priced in. The strong economy and low inflation scenario is now seen as unlikely. The inflation report also had an impact on gold and bitcoin prices. Gold fell below ,000 and bitcoin’s climb above ,000 was halted.

A step in right direction for UK, BoE cautious

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A step in right direction for UK, BoE cautious

The text discusses the progress of the UK in cutting interest rates and the challenges involved in doing so. It mentions that wage growth is slowing, but it is uncertain if it will fall to a level consistent with 2% inflation. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.8%, but it is no longer a reliable indicator. The Bank of England is relying on various data and surveys to make judgments about the labor market. The text also briefly mentions oil prices, gold prices, and the milestone of bitcoin breaking above ,000.

Foreign investors want more info on energy, relocation

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Foreign investors want more info on energy, relocation

Foreign investors active in Cyprus attended a “Foreign Investors Dialogue with the Government” event where they were informed about actions being implemented or planned by the government. The government aims to make Cyprus an attractive destination for living, working, and doing business. Some of the actions mentioned include new housing policies, the possibility of submitting electronic applications for renewable energy projects, the implementation of the Strategic Investments Law, and improvements in the education system for children of foreign workers. The government has also introduced measures to improve the business environment, support innovation and entrepreneurship, and streamline licensing procedures. The Company Facilitation Unit has registered almost 2,000 foreign companies since its establishment. The government is also addressing housing affordability and delays in the naturalization process. The labor market is being made more accessible for third country nationals studying in Cyprus.

Cyprus Business Now: weekly wrap-up

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Cyprus Business Now: weekly wrap-up

Here are the factual points extracted from the text:

1. The Cyprus Shipping Chamber (CSC) announced that it is marking 35 years of successful operation since its establishment on January 26, 1989.
2. The Cyprus real estate data analytics firm Ask Wire released a report outlining the ten most lucrative property transactions completed in Cyprus during 2023, with a focus on high-value deals in the district of Limassol.
3. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged at a record high on January 25 and did not indicate a shift towards policy easing.
4. Wargaming, an online game developer and publisher headquartered in Nicosia, announced opportunities for students and recent graduates in 2024, including six online gaming educational courses.
5. Cyprus’ Deputy Ministry of Tourism sees an opportunity for increasing tourist arrivals from Switzerland, estimating visits to reach 80,000 in 2023, up from 73,000 in 2022, marking a 20 percent increase.
6. The President of the Cyprus Institute, Stavros Malas, presented a proposal for the establishment of a Centre of Excellence for Smart and Sustainable Farming (SMARTFARM).
7. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus increased by 2.3 units in January 2024 compared to December 2023, primarily due to a stronger business environment in the services sector.
8. TechIsland and Adsterra launched an educational programme called “Advocate For Yourself” under the Women in Tech Cyprus initiative.
9. Mark Rachovides, chairman of Venus Minerals, explained that copper prices are expected to rise by approximately 75 percent over the next two years due to supply disruptions and increased demand.
10. Finance Minister Makis Keravnos and Cyprus Central Bank governor Constantinos Herodotou discussed a potential decrease in ECB interest rates during 2024, with an expectation that rates are likely to fall before the end of the year barring unforeseen events.
11. The Bank of Cyprus returned a total of €2.2 million to up-to-date mortgage borrowers as part of their ongoing reward plan.
12. A €6.6 million project to install solar panels in 405 schools has been completed, resulting in a 30 percent reduction in total energy consumption, and was funded under the national Recovery and Resilience plan.

Interest rate cuts likely to take place in 2024, CBC governor says

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Interest rate cuts likely to take place in 2024, CBC governor says

– Finance Minister Makis Keravnos and Cyprus Central Bank Governor Constantinos Herodotou discussed a potential decrease in interest rates by the European Central Bank during 2024.
– They agreed that interest rates are likely to fall before the end of the year, barring unforeseen events.
– Herodotou mentioned the positive trajectory of the Cypriot economy, which was echoed by Keravnos.
– Inflation in Cyprus was at 8.1% in 2022, peaking at 10.6% in July, then falling to 1.9% in December 2023, with a minimal increase expected in January due to the base effect.
– The positive progress in inflation was attributed to monetary policy and targeted support measures.
– Increased uncertainty exists due to geopolitical developments, including attacks on the Suez Canal and the situation in the Middle East.
– Herodotou indicated that interest rate cuts are expected within 2024, but cautioned against reducing them too soon to avoid a resurgence of inflation.
– The majority of Cypriot consumer products are imported from European countries, but the economy is affected by issues such as cruise ship tourism due to regional instability.
– There has been a decrease in the prices of basic products, including fuel, in Cyprus.
– Despite interest rate hikes, a surge in non-performing loans (NPLs) has not occurred, partly due to measures ensuring banks consider borrowers’ repayment capacity and increased savings.
– A new framework for NPLs has seen a positive response from borrowers and includes a stable foreclosure framework with a safety net.
– Banks and credit acquisition companies have restructured £2.4 billion worth of loans in 2023.
– The CBC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, is working on a plan to help smaller banks reduce their NPL ratios, which is currently in its second phase.