Growth rate slows in March , – CCLEI survey
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) saw a year-over-year decrease of 0.9% in March, indicating a slowing economy on the island.
oil price
Oil ends week in negative territory, despite tensions
Fact: Despite escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, oil prices closed the week lower and are still below recent highs.
WTI falls on uncertain demand, MidEast tensions
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped to .00 due to weak demand outlook and expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher. The Fed’s confidence in price pressures declining to 2% has been dented by higher consumer price inflation and strong labor market data. Expectations of higher crude oil inventories and fears of oil supply tightening due to Iran’s attack on Israel have also impacted the oil price. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned the possibility of new sanctions on Iran, which could affect their oil exports.
Spanish airlines increase capacity as they expect record summer demand
Spanish airlines are expecting a record summer season, adding 13% more seats compared to last year, with up to 758,000 flights scheduled from April to October. Despite inflation, consumer demand for leisure travel remains strong, especially to popular Spanish destinations like the Canary Islands and Andalusia. Only 0.2% of flights departing from Spain have Israel as a destination, minimizing the impact of the Middle East conflict on the airline industry. Airlines are prepared for potential oil price increases due to geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitics, Fed and Chinese GDP
Geopolitical tensions are causing caution among investors, with concerns about potential retaliation from Israel against Iran. The Nasdaq index fell below its 50-day SMA, indicating a possible sell-off. US economic data, including industrial production and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, are being closely watched. Oil prices are influenced by tensions in the Middle East, with the possibility of Brent crude reaching 0. Gold prices are anchored by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, with potential for further increases. China’s strong GDP growth is seen as positive for gold demand. Powell’s speech and potential oil price increases could impact inflation. Gold prices are expected to continue rising, potentially reaching ,500.
WTI rises to $86.20 on threats against Israel
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is trading around .20 a barrel in Asian trading on Friday, with the rise attributed to potential supply disruptions amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Fuel prices surge after government tax measures end
Fuel prices have surged following the termination of the government’s zero tax measure on petrol and diesel, resulting in an average increase of 8.3 cents per litre. The average price of unleaded 95 fuel was €1.413,47.
CCLEI economic indicator about to flatline
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) is showing a downward trend and is about to flatline at 0% growth.
Oil prices to keep on rising
– The oil price is now over /barrel due to tight supply, increasing demand, Middle East conflict, and Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, with expectations of further increases.
– The International Energy Agency (IEA) now predicts a global oil supply deficit throughout 2024, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
– The IEA and OPEC agree on supply deficits due to OPEC+ cuts and rising global demand.
– The IEA forecasts a crude consumption increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) this year, while OPEC maintains its growth estimate at 2.25 million b/d for 2024.
– The US is producing more crude oil than any other country, averaging 12.9 million b/d in 2023, with Saudi Arabia and Russia close to 10 million b/d.
– Oil and gas executives expect a slower transition to net-zero due to geopolitical turmoil, macroeconomic conditions, and AI.
– Shell aims to reduce its net carbon intensity by 15%-20% by 2030, adjusting from its previous goal of 20%.
– Adnoc and BP suspended their billion bid for a stake in Israel’s NewMed Energy due to the conflict in Gaza but remain interested.
– Adnoc and BP announced a new joint venture centered on Egypt on 14 February.
– European refineries may have a profitable future due to elevated margins for refined oil products like diesel and gasoline, amidst war in Ukraine and Red Sea tensions.
– On 13 March, Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russian refineries, reducing refining capacity by 370,500 b/d.
– Falling refining capacity has increased diesel premiums ahead of crude by about /b.
– By 2026, Europe will have reduced its crude distillation capacity by about 7% compared to 2020, becoming more reliant on imports of refined products and more vulnerable to supply shocks.
– The IEA and OPEC continue to have contrasting biases in oil market forecasts.
– CERAWeek in Houston saw top oil executives and ministers discuss the energy sector, with less pressure for a large-scale move to clean fuels.
– ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods emphasized the cost concerns in reducing emissions.
– Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted the critical role of LNG in Shell’s future.
– Saudi Aramco’s CEO criticized the energy transition approach, advocating for efficient hydrocarbon use.
– US Secretary of Energy Granholm emphasized meeting current energy needs while preparing for future realities.
– Wind turbine blades, which can’t be recycled, are accumulating in landfills.
– Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023, according to the IEA.
– Germany has opened its first EUR 4 billion bidding round for ‘Carbon Contracts for Difference’ for industrial users to switch to green hydrogen or other low-emissions technology.
– Engie urges caution on the pace of hydrogen deployment in hard-to-abate industries.
– Global greenhouse gas emissions from food systems are growing, with livestock being the biggest driver.
– Jim Skea of the IPCC stated the world is in ‘unknown territory’ after heat records were broken, indicating more science is needed to understand extraordinary temperatures.