COMMENT: Russian tax hikes – important but not large enough
Russia has announced changes to its tax system, moving from a flat to a progressive system by 2025. The upper rate of income tax will rise from 15% to 22% and for corporate taxes from 20% to 25%. These changes are expected to reduce the budget deficit caused by increased military spending but may not be enough to prevent economic overheating. The tax hikes are modest compared to military and defense spending, which is 6% of GDP and rising. The overall fiscal stance remains expansionary, challenging the central bank’s efforts to combat inflation. Russia’s budget deficit is expected to halve this year and remain flat in 2025, while growth forecasts vary with some predicting modest growth and others more upbeat figures.