German business morale stagnated in May, with the Ifo institute reporting that the business climate index remained constant at 89.3, falling short of the forecasted improvement. The German economy is expected to have slow progress in its recovery this year, with companies being less satisfied with the current business situation. Despite some sectors recovering, the overall outlook remains cautious.
Donald Trump allegedly offered Big Oil executives 0 billion in tax breaks if they donated billion to his campaign. Congressional Democrats are investigating this potential quid pro quo deal. Joe Biden plans to eliminate these tax breaks for the oil and gas industry if elected. The fossil fuel industry is lobbying to maintain these tax breaks, which are set to expire next year. Some attendees at Trump’s fundraising dinner at Mar-a-Lago included executives of smaller oil companies focused on fracking and gas exporting. The event was also attended by individuals with controversial backgrounds in the oil and gas industry.
The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0850 in a tight range. ECB policymakers are hesitant to commit to further rate cuts beyond June due to concerns about reviving price pressures. Traders have lowered expectations of three rate cuts to two this year. Higher wage growth is leading to increased consumer spending and inflationary pressures. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate data for May missed estimates, with the Business Climate Index, Current Economic Assessment Index, and Expectations Index all falling short of expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rebounded on Friday, recovering from a fresh 12-week low set early in the day at .03. The benchmark US crude remains down on the week, in the red by -2.38% from Monday’s opening bids.
Fact: Governor Murphy has proposed a billion tax increase on New Jersey’s largest employers.
The WTI crude oil price has been on a losing streak for the fifth trading session due to a hawkish outlook on interest rates by Federal Reserve policymakers. Fed officials are uncertain about the disinflation process and are considering further tightening of monetary policy. The next trigger for oil prices will be the OPEC meeting scheduled for June 1 to discuss supply policy.
The Dollar Index (DXY) entered a consolidation phase after reaching a weekly high near 105.00.
AI is leading to increased productivity in sectors heavily exposed to it, with AI jobs experiencing notable growth. For every job posting requiring AI specialist skills in 2012, there are now seven job postings. Growth in jobs demanding AI skills has significantly outpaced all jobs since 2016, growing 3.5 times faster. Jobs that necessitate AI skills carry up to a 25 per cent average wage premium in some markets. Sectors most exposed to AI are experiencing nearly fivefold higher labor productivity growth compared to sectors less exposed to AI. Jobs that require AI specialist skills carry a significant wage premium, up to 25 per cent on average in the US. Skills demanded by employers in occupations more exposed to AI are changing at a 25 per cent higher rate than in less exposed occupations. 69 per cent of CEOs expect AI will require new skills from their workforce, rising to 87 per cent of CEOs who have already deployed AI.
Fact: European Union Member States are in the process of implementing the global minimum tax in line with a directive unanimously agreed to at the end of 2022.
EURUSD is trading near 1.0850 in a tight range as the US Dollar stabilizes ahead of the FOMC Minutes and preliminary S&P Global PMI data. ECB policymakers are considering extending the rate-cut cycle, while Fed officials are emphasizing the need to maintain a restrictive policy framework. US inflation declined in April, and policymakers want to see more good inflation data before making any changes to monetary policy. Fed Vice Chair Barr and Atlanta Fed President Bostic both expressed the need for more time to be certain that inflation will reach the 2% target.