Turkey central bank stuns market with 500-point rate hike to 50%

Turkey central bank stuns market with 500-point rate hike to 50%

Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates by 500 basis points to 50% due to a deteriorating inflation outlook and may tighten further if inflation worsens significantly and persistently. This decision, seen as a demonstration of the central bank’s independence, occurred 10 days before nationwide local elections. Following the rate hike, the lira appreciated by up to 1.5% against the dollar, and Turkey’s dollar bonds rallied. Since last June, the central bank has increased the key one-week repo rate by 4,150 basis points from 8.5%, following a shift towards more orthodox economic policies after President Tayyip Erdogan’s election victory in May. The central bank also adjusted its policy operational framework, setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis points below and above the repo rate. Inflation in Turkey rose to 67% last month, higher than expected, despite a series of rate hikes since June. A Reuters poll showed that while most respondents expected the rate to remain steady in March, a majority anticipated further hikes later in the year. The central bank has also taken steps to tighten credit, including adjusting reserve requirements and raising the maximum rate on credit card cash withdrawals. Tighter fiscal policy is expected after the upcoming elections, which could increase credit costs and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis in Turkey.

Government ire at , ‘all Cyprus could be Turkish’ comment

Government ire at , ‘all Cyprus could be Turkish’ comment

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made statements suggesting that if Turkish forces had advanced further during the 1974 invasion of Cyprus, the entire island could have been Turkish. These remarks were criticized by Cyprus government spokesman Konstantinos Letymbiotis as “unacceptable” and “provocative.” Letymbiotis emphasized that Cyprus, a European Union member state, has been under occupation since the 1974 invasion, which he described as “barbaric.” Erdogan’s comments were also seen as disrespectful to international law, European principles, UN Security Council resolutions, and the UN Secretary-General. Despite Erdogan’s divisive statements, the Cypriot government remains committed to resolving the Cyprus issue through negotiations based on a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality, in line with UN resolutions.

Our View: The two sides have over-complicated the peace process

Our View: The two sides have over-complicated the peace process

Maria Angela Holguin, the personal envoy of the UN Secretary-General, completed her second visit to Cyprus after meeting President Christodoulides. During her week-long visit, she engaged with party chiefs, mayors, chambers of commerce, and civil society members from both sides of Cyprus. Holguin plans to return next month following visits to Brussels and several EU member-states. She had previously visited the three guarantor states. Details of her meetings are scarce, but it is known that she sought opinions on breaking the deadlock in Cyprus without revealing her own views. Holguin has expressed interest in engaging with civil society groups, although their influence is considered limited. The text suggests that a breakthrough in the peace process should come from the leadership level rather than civil society, emphasizing the roles of President Erdogan and President Christodoulides in potentially advancing towards a settlement.

UN continuing to find common ground in Cyprus

UN continuing to find common ground in Cyprus

The UN is actively working to find a resolution that benefits both communities in Cyprus, as stated by UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric. This effort continues despite statements by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan advocating for a “two state solution” and emphasizing the “equal rights” of Turkish Cypriots. The UN’s envoy, Maria Holguin, is involved in these efforts to find common ground between the two sides.

Turkey inflation rises to 67%, keeping pressure on cenbank

Turkey inflation rises to 67%, keeping pressure on cenbank

Turkey’s annual inflation rate increased to 67.07% in February, with significant price rises in food, hotels, and education. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek indicated inflation would remain high in the near term due to base effects and the delayed impact of rate hikes but expected it to decrease over the next 12 months. The central bank has raised interest rates by 3,650 basis points since June, reaching a 45% policy rate, which it deems sufficient to reduce inflation. However, economists suggest further tightening may be necessary due to continued price pressure and strong domestic demand. Monthly consumer price inflation was 4.53%, down from 6.70% in January but above expectations. The Turkish lira has weakened by 6% this year after a nearly 37% decline in 2023, affecting import prices. Price increases were most notable in restaurants and hotels at 94.5%, education at 91.8%, and food and non-alcoholic drinks at 71.1%. The central bank aims to maintain tight monetary policy to achieve its 36% year-end inflation target, while the domestic producer price index rose by 3.74% month-on-month in February for an annual increase of 47.29%.

President comments on Cyprus Problem, Tatar’s statements

President comments on Cyprus Problem, Tatar’s statements

President Christodoulides made statements regarding the Cyprus issue, sending messages to various parties including N. Papadopoulos, Ersin Tatar, and others involved in the Cyprus issue. He emphasized that any ideas processed by the Republic of Cyprus, especially concerning Euro-Turkish relations, cannot include sovereignty equality, which he stated is not up for discussion. Christodoulides mentioned that everyone will be judged by the outcome of their actions and highlighted the Greek Cypriot side’s clear goals and expectations from the mission of Maria Angela Holguín Cuéllar, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy. He announced an upcoming meeting on March 11 following Holguín’s visits to London, Turkey, and possibly Brussels. Christodoulides also expressed a desire for more active involvement from Turkey in resolving the Cyprus issue and noted the importance of the international community’s role. He denied any new developments related to the energy issue following the Turkish President’s visit to Egypt, stating that resolving the Cyprus problem would strengthen prospects but there is nothing specific at the moment.

About the Kurdish journalists

About the Kurdish journalists

The fact described in the text is that more journalists have been killed in Gaza since October 7, and that Israel does not distinguish between combatants or civilians, journalists or terrorists, adults or minors. Additionally, the text mentions that hundreds of journalists are imprisoned in Turkey, with six Kurdish journalists being arrested recently.

Turkey moving swiftly to conclude Sweden’s NATO bid with F-16s in sight

Turkey moving swiftly to conclude Sweden’s NATO bid with F-16s in sight

Turkey is expected to send the final instrument of ratification for Sweden’s NATO membership to Washington, which will clear the way for Turkey’s purchase of U.S. F-16 fighter jets. President Tayyip Erdogan signed off on Sweden’s membership after parliament endorsed it, ending 20 months of delays. The final document needs to be deposited in the U.S. State Department archives. Turkey’s approval was seen as the main obstacle in securing Sweden’s accession into NATO. The U.S. and U.K. welcomed Erdogan’s approval. The approval is linked to the billion sale of F-16s and modernization kits to Turkey. U.S. President Joe Biden intends to begin the formal notification process for the sale once Ankara completes Sweden’s NATO accession process. Turkey is now awaiting the U.S.’s move on the F-16 sale.

Mayor says Istanbul vote to send Erdogan a message of democracy

Mayor says Istanbul vote to send Erdogan a message of democracy

Opposition Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu stated in an interview that the upcoming local elections in March will send a message to President Tayyip Erdogan’s government about the Turkish people’s desire for democracy, justice, and the rule of law. Imamoglu acknowledged that his re-election bid will be more difficult this time because opposition parties are no longer in alliance against candidates from Erdogan’s ruling AK Party. However, he expressed confidence in defeating a newly-named AKP challenger. Imamoglu’s election five years ago ended the AKP’s 25-year rule in Istanbul. The opposition faces a challenge in the upcoming municipal elections as the CHP and other opposition parties have not agreed to field shared candidates in big cities.