IMF says global ‘soft landing’ in sight, lifts 2024 growth outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for global economic growth, citing faster-than-expected easing of inflation. The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, stated that a “soft landing” was in sight, but overall growth and global trade still remained lower than the historical average. The IMF forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.9%, and expected global trade to expand by 3.3% in 2024. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea could disrupt commodity prices and supply chains. The IMF also warned that delays in fiscal consolidation and the potential violation of global trade rules by certain countries could impact economic activity.

Government needs a new economic agenda

Government needs a new economic agenda

The trade unions and the Minister of Finance in Cyprus are in disagreement over the automatic wage indexation policy. The government had previously agreed to adjust salaries and pensions of public employees at a cost of 1.2 billion euros, but now the finance ministry is reconsidering this decision due to warnings from the European Commission, the IMF, and the country’s Fiscal Council about the risks to fiscal stability. The unions are trying to reverse reforms that were made as part of the country’s rescue package by the EU, IMF, and ECB. The author suggests that the government should implement policy measures to address fiscal risks and drive growth and competitiveness, such as incentivizing employees to work past retirement age and creating a sovereign fund. Additionally, the author recommends addressing the demographic risk by providing affordable housing to new couples with EU citizenship. It is unclear if the president has the vision and priorities to implement these policies.

UK still undecided on digital cash as privacy concerns persist

UK still undecided on digital cash as privacy concerns persist

British authorities will decide no earlier than next year on the potential implementation of a state-backed digital pound. The Bank of England and Britain’s finance ministry are continuing with the design phase after a public consultation that received 50,000 responses, with privacy concerns being a prominent issue. No final decision has been made to pursue a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and a decision on whether to proceed to the build phase is expected around the middle of the decade.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak supported the idea when he was finance minister in 2021, but the digital pound would likely not be operational until near the end of the decade if approved. Proposals suggest that individuals could hold electronic pounds up to a limit of 10,000 to 20,000 pounds, without earning interest. Banks have advocated for a lower limit due to concerns over potential outflows from traditional bank accounts.

British lawmakers have not yet been convinced of the necessity for digital cash, and privacy issues are also a concern for other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. The European Union’s progress on a digital euro has been hampered by similar concerns.

The UK government states that a digital pound would be private but not anonymous, allowing for the tracking of transactions suspected of involving money laundering or financing terrorism. However, it would not replace physical cash, ensuring continued access to an anonymous payment option. The government also plans to ensure privacy through legislation and further public consultations if the project advances. The digital currency would not be programmable to block specific transactions, addressing some privacy advocates’ concerns.

Bank deposits see increase

Bank deposits see increase

In December, total deposits in the banking system increased by €346 million, reaching €52.2 billion. Total loans also increased by €284.2 million, reaching €24.8 billion. The system liquidity, which is the difference between deposits and loans, was set at €27.4 billion. Deposits from residents of Cyprus increased by €388 million, with household deposits increasing by €461 million. Deposits from domestic non-financial corporations decreased by €252 million. Deposits from other domestic sectors increased by €179 million. Loans to residents of Cyprus increased by €132.9 million, with loans to households increasing by €99 million and loans to non-financial corporations increasing by €54.5 million. Loans to other domestic sectors decreased by €20.6 million.