The political editor of Phileleftheros, Frixos Dalitis, offers insight into the pivotal factors that will shape the outcome of the upcoming Sunday’s European Parliament elections.
Four unpredictable elements, each with its unique potential to influence the final election result, are at play in this Sunday’s dual electoral contest.
Party Rallying: The ability of traditional parties to mobilise their voter base holds the key to answering many of the ballot box questions. The race for first place between DISY and AKEL remains too close to call, while it is still uncertain which party, DIKO or ELAM, will secure the third spot. The highly contested fifth position, which under certain circumstances could open the door to representation in the European Parliament, will also hinge on the rallying percentages of both the four largest parties and the smaller parliamentary parties. The success of independent candidates like Feidias Panayiotou and new parties such as Volt will also depend on the extent to which established parties can rally their supporters.
Turkish Cypriots: On the special electoral register for Turkish Cypriots eligible to vote in the European elections, there are approximately 104,000 individuals, a significant increase of about 30,000 since 2019. In the previous European elections, around 5,800 Turkish Cypriots cast their votes, with 4,706 of them supporting AKEL. While an increased turnout is expected this year, it remains challenging to predict the exact number of Turkish Cypriots who will ultimately choose to exercise their democratic right. The presence of three Turkish Cypriot candidates, each representing distinct parties (Niyazi Kizilyurek for AKEL, Oz Karahan for the Green Party, and Hulusi Kilim for Volt), serves as an encouraging factor for increased Turkish Cypriot participation. An anticipated turnout of 10,000-15,000 Turkish Cypriot voters has the potential to bring about significant shifts in the election outcome.
Voter Turnout: The previous European elections witnessed a record abstention rate, with participation dipping just below 45%. Specifically, out of the total 641,181 registered voters, only 288,483 cast their ballots (44.99%), leaving 352,698 (55.01%) in abstention. It is important to clarify that the calculation of the abstention rate is influenced by the inclusion of Turkish Cypriot voters on the overall voter list, as their participation rates have historically been very low. Conversely, a lower overall participation rate amplifies the impact of the Turkish Cypriot vote on the final result.
The simultaneous conduct of the European elections alongside the Local Government elections, featuring a diverse array of candidates, may serve as a motivating factor for increased voter turnout. However, there are concerns that the complexity of the voting process and the multitude of ballots could prove to be a deterrent, potentially discouraging some voters.
Punishment Voting: Interactions between political parties and the broader society, as well as various polls, have revealed a discernible trend: a segment of the electorate intends to punish traditional parties by casting their votes for alternative candidates or new parties. To some extent, this translates into increased support for the far-right and ELAM. Simultaneously, there appears to be a shift towards exploring other voting options as well. This explains the surprising momentum observed in polls for independent candidate Fidias Panayiotou, as well as the notable appeal of the newly established Volt party. It remains uncertain, however, whether this trend will translate into actual votes on election day..
