A week before the double election showdown, the political landscape remains fluid. The contest for the top spot in the European elections between DISY and AKEL is extremely tight, as is the battle for third place between DIKO and ELAM. There is still the potential for one of the two major parties to lose a seat, which essentially depends on the results at the polls, regardless of which party comes first or second.
The percentages that DIKO and ELAM will achieve in their contest are particularly significant, as their close race might result in higher-than-expected percentages for both parties.
There is also uncertainty about the percentages the smaller parties will secure. This makes the equation even more complex, as recent polls have failed to clarify the situation, just as the parties’ direct engagement with the electorate has not provided clear insights. EDEK, DIPA, and the Greens are battling to garner enough support.
Winning fifth place carries prestige, but without securing more than 5% of the vote, it will have little substantive impact and may instead lead to storm clouds gathering over their party offices.
Adding to the mix is the phenomenon of Phidias Panayiotou, an independent candidate for MEP, who appears to be garnering significant voter support. Some polls suggest he might even cause major upsets. His candidacy is reflected in voter intention in various surveys and among segments of the electorate.
The young “TikToker” candidate seems to attract electoral dissatisfaction with traditional parties, stemming from various reasons. Additionally, his efforts to register new voters to ensure they can vote are seen as a factor supporting his candidacy. His campaign has successfully registered many new voters, who are expected to vote for him potentially. While this cannot be known in advance, it is an element that cannot be ignored.
Two key parameters, crucial for the outcome, remain absent from this scenario:
- The turnout of Turkish Cypriots at the polls
- The percentage of voter abstention
In 2019, there were 82,925 registered Turkish Cypriot voters, of whom 5,804 voted, with valid ballots slightly over 5,600. It should be noted that overall turnout in the previous European elections was the lowest ever recorded in Cyprus. Out of 641,181 voters, only 288,483 voted, amounting to less than 45%. The valid ballots numbered 280,935. The 5,600 Turkish Cypriot votes represented approximately 2% of the electorate, but how this percentage was distributed is important.
In 2019, around 50 special polling stations were set up for Turkish Cypriots. This number proved excessively large, as many saw no participation. Of the over 5,600 Turkish Cypriots who voted, 4,076 voted for AKEL. Thus, out of the 2% of the electorate they constituted, 1.5% voted for AKEL.
The remaining 0.5% mainly went to the “Yasemin” electoral list, which included six Turkish Cypriot candidates. The other Greek Cypriot parties received minimal votes from Turkish Cypriots. For example, DISY received only 68 votes, the highest after AKEL among the Greek Cypriot parties. Hence, Turkish Cypriot votes added 1.5% to AKEL’s total.
The left-wing party had received 27.49% overall in 2019. This percentage might have been seen as a simple increase back then, but in this year’s elections, even a 1.5% shift could significantly change the final results.
There are 103,269 registered Turkish Cypriot voters for the upcoming elections, nearly 30,000 more than in 2019. However, it’s essential to clarify that registration for Turkish Cypriots is automatic and not application-based. Those eligible to vote are holders of a Cypriot ID over 18 years old. Thus, from 2019 to 2024, the number of Turkish Cypriots over 18 with Cypriot IDs increased by about 30,000. This does not necessarily mean a proportional increase in their participation at the polls.
Expected Voter Turnout
The turnout of Turkish Cypriots in the upcoming elections is expected to increase, based on several factors:
- Three Turkish Cypriots are running in the European elections with three different Greek Cypriot parties: Niyazi Kizilyurek with AKEL, Oz Karahan with the Greens, and Hulusi Kilim with Volt.
The collaborative relationship between AKEL and the Turkish Republican Party has seen pre-election rallies held in the occupied territories. This partnership and encouragement for Turkish Cypriots to vote could help increase their turnout.
The Election Service estimates, based on available information, that the number of Turkish Cypriots expected to vote will be around 10,000-15,000, a clear increase from previous elections. Depending on overall turnout, their votes could carry significant weight. For example, 10,000-15,000 voters represent about 1.5-2% of the electorate. However, if overall turnout is low, these 10,000-15,000 votes could represent 3-4%, which is significant enough to influence the final result.
This percentage will not go to a single party, but it is evident that the majority will be distributed among the three parties with Turkish Cypriot candidates, with AKEL likely being the primary beneficiary. If Turkish Cypriot voters add around 2% to AKEL’s total, it could give AKEL an advantage in its battle with DISY for the top spot. According to most polls, DISY holds a lead, but these polls do not account for the Turkish Cypriot vote.
Therefore, the participation of Turkish Cypriots could lead to upsets. Additionally, given these circumstances, Niyazi Kizilyurek also gains a significant advantage in his contest for second place with Anna Theologou and Stavri Kalopsidiotis.
This year, the Election Service will operate only 32 special polling stations for Turkish Cypriots, compared to 50 in 2019. This decision is based on the experience of previous elections, which indicated that fewer polling stations are needed. All polling stations are located near well-known crossing points to facilitate participation.
Key factor: DISY’s voter consolidation
A critical factor influencing the election outcome is the level of voter consolidation that the Democratic Rally (DISY) can achieve by election day. This is crucial because it affects both DISY’s own percentage and the percentages of other parties or candidates.
DISY’s consolidation significantly impacts the final percentage that ELAM may achieve, potentially even affecting ELAM’s lead over AKEL. The political landscape’s fluidity largely stems from the atmosphere within DISY since the presidential elections. Discontent, disappointment, and disagreements among DISY supporters are prompting many to consider voting for other parties as a form of retribution.
These alternative votes might go to ELAM, Phidias Panayiotou, or another party. Disagreements and reactions to how candidates were selected for local elections have sparked a new wave of dissent. Combined with the division during the presidential elections, ongoing personal agendas, and personal passions, this has created an unstable situation that the party leadership is striving to manage.
Current research shows that DISY has low consolidation levels. Historically, however, DISY has often managed to consolidate its voters at the last minute. For instance, in the 2004 elections, following the contentious Annan Plan referendum and faced with candidates from their own ranks led by former president Yiannakis Matsis, DISY still emerged as the leading party, electing two MEPs with 28.23% of the vote (94,355 votes).
Today’s circumstances are different, and voter behavior has changed. Yet, even in the 2021 parliamentary elections, where DISY was predicted to lose its lead, it managed to remain the top party, partly due to AKEL’s losses. Similarly, in the recent presidential elections, despite a faction supporting Nikos Christodoulides, Averof Neophytou’s candidacy still managed to capture a percentage close to the party’s performance in the parliamentary elections, although it did not make it to the second round of the presidential race. These patterns in voter behavior within DISY suggest trends that cannot be ignored.Voter turnout. political landscape, European elections, voter turnout