All the latest opinion polls published this week capture a specific trend within Cypriot society, although it is uncertain whether this will be reflected in the ballot box on June 9.
On the other hand, some argue that polls are not just a tool for gauging public opinion but are also used as a tool to influence voters in one direction or another.
We can spend countless hours discussing the pros and cons of opinion polls, what they may hide, and looking for shadows and conspiracy theories. Similarly, we can spend just as many hours discussing and analysing the various games played on social media platforms and whether they aim to inform or herd voters in a particular direction.
However, when examining a poll (any poll), it is important to look beyond the analyst’s explanation, which typically relies on interpreting the numbers before them. Two other elements deserve attention. The first is always in front of us on television screens: the explanations and interpretations provided by the representative of each party.
The second, and perhaps more important, element is the individual exercise that each of us who is interested in polls and wants to interpret them personally should engage in. And the easiest thing in such an exercise is common sense. We should look at it based on what each of us perceives in our professional or family circles or where we have our coffee, without filtering it through the lens of our political or partisan beliefs.
A common finding of all recent polls is that a percentage ranging from 67% to 77% of respondents intend to vote on Sunday, June 9. What does this mean? It suggests a reversal of previous trends in similar elections, where voter turnout was much lower. The last time participation reached 70% was in 2004, during the first European elections. Since then, there has been a downward trend in voter turnout, not only for European elections but also for all other electoral contests.
Within society, we currently observe, just days before the elections, a trend towards increased voter turnout. This is evident in our conversations with our professional or family circles. In contrast to the past, we see and hear that there is a willingness to go to the polls. This may be due to the novelty of the complex process of mixed (European and local) elections. However, we are talking about a trend and not actual data.
It is also noteworthy that these polls (regarding the European elections, which I personally believe carry far more political weight than the local ones) capture certain trends within society. I hear, read, and observe in various television discussions that many are surprised by what the polls reveal. But why should there be such a surprise? Aren’t the findings of these polls consistent with what we hear from those around us daily?
Many are surprised that a “TikToker” records high popularity! But if we go back a month, to the day of the submission of candidacies, we will see that this particular “TikToker” received more coverage on electronic media outlets than any other politician or candidate. It is, therefore, logical that he creates a trend within society, which is also captured by the polls.
However, what ultimately matters is not the answers given in a poll but the choices made by those who show up to vote. It is their preferences that count and determine the outcome.voter turnout. opinion polls, voter turnout, trends
