{"id":6392,"date":"2024-04-01T14:01:17","date_gmt":"2024-04-01T11:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ch.jfdi.cc\/?p=6392"},"modified":"2024-04-01T14:01:17","modified_gmt":"2024-04-01T11:01:17","slug":"positive-outlook-for-cyprus-economy-according-to-rating-agency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ch.jfdi.cc\/?p=6392","title":{"rendered":"Positive outlook for Cyprus economy, according to rating agency"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ch.jfdi.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/positive-outlook-for-cyprus-economy-according-to-rating-agency.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Capital Intelligence Ratings<\/strong> (CI Ratings) has <strong>revised its long-term foreign currency rating (LT FCR) outlook for the Republic of Cyprus from stable to positive<\/strong>, while affirming the country\u2019s LT FCR and short-term FCR (ST FCR) at BBB- and A3 respectively.<\/p>\n<div class=\"cypru-video-ads\" id=\"cypru-2054071115\">\n<div id=\"cypru-935269428\" data-cypru-trackid=\"478051\" data-cypru-trackbid=\"1\" class=\"cypru-target\">\n<div id=\"gpt-ad-3467835641498-0\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to a statement from CI Ratings, the revision in outlook reflects the faster-than-anticipated reduction in the government\u2019s debt due to <strong>consistent primary fiscal surpluses and proactive debt management.<\/strong><br \/>\n\u201cThe government continues to manage its debt maturity profile to reduce refinancing risks while maintaining an increasing cash buffer to address short-term shocks and external vulnerabilities,\u201d the agency said.<br \/>\nThe assessment also takes into account progress made in resolving non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system.<br \/>\nAs a result, the state\u2019s contingent liabilities from the banking sector have significantly decreased in recent years, CI noted.<br \/>\nOther fiscal risks seem manageable currently, despite the challenging external environment and still restrictive global financial conditions.<br \/>\nCyprus\u2019 ratings continue to be supported by the proven resilience of its economy and high per capita GDP, according to the rating agency.<br \/>\nThe assessments also consider the benefits of EU and eurozone membership, including access to financial support through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).<br \/>\nAccording to CI Ratings\u2019 data, the <strong>general government debt-to-GDP ratio decreased to 77.3 per cent in 2023<\/strong> from 85.6 per cent in 2022, reflecting a higher-than-forecast primary budget surplus of 4.2 per cent of GDP (compared to 3.4 per cent in 2022) and the repayment of bonds and loans amounting to \u20ac1.4 billion (4.7 per cent of GDP).<br \/>\nMoreover, CI expects the dynamic of public debt to remain favourable in the coming years, with the debt-to-GDP ratio continuing to decline, albeit to a still moderate-to-high 66.2 per cent (165.2 per cent of revenues) in 2025.<br \/>\nDebt maturities, estimated at \u20ac2.4 billion (7.6 per cent of GDP) for 2024 and \u20ac1.8 billion (5.2 per cent of GDP) for 2025, are within the government\u2019s repayment capacity and do not currently pose refinancing challenges.<br \/>\nThe government\u2019s <strong>budget performances remained strong in 2023<\/strong>, with the fiscal position (on a cash basis) recording an overall surplus higher than anticipated, at 2.9 per cent of GDP (compared to 2.4 per cent in 2022).<br \/>\nIn addition, CI Ratings expects the general government budget to remain surplus in 2024-25, averaging 3.1 per cent of GDP.<br \/>\nRegarding risks to Cyprus\u2019 fiscal outlook, it notes that they still exist, and outcomes could be weaker than forecast if fiscal discipline is relaxed or expenditures on subsidies, social welfare, and public sector wages increase.<br \/>\nOther <strong>risks to the budget stem from the cost of the national healthcare system (Gesy) and a potential decline in tax revenues<\/strong> if downside risks to GDP growth materialise.<br \/>\nCurrently, the agency believes that the impact of high-risk premiums and the eurozone\u2019s strict monetary policy on public finances is manageable due to the reduction in general government debt and the high proportion (70 per cent) of debt at fixed interest rates in total debt.<br \/>\nShort-term refinancing risks remained stable since the agency\u2019s last review. \u201cThis is due to the government\u2019s sound fiscal management, favourable debt maturity structure, timely access to capital markets, and prudent creation of cash reserves covering over 200 per cent of gross financing needs for the next 12 months at least,\u201d the report stated.<br \/>\nDespite persistent external adversities, economic growth remains positive, albeit moderated, as noted in the assessment.<br \/>\nReal GDP is estimated to be at 2.5 per cent in 2023, compared to 5.1 per cent in 2022, reflecting restrained growth in key sectors of the economy, particularly in <strong>hospitality, construction, wholesale and retail trade<\/strong>, as well as information technology and technology.<br \/>\nElsewhere, the agency noted that the strength of the banking sector has significantly improved in recent years but is still considered moderate.<br \/>\nAccording to the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC), the <strong>total non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of credit institutions operating in Cyprus further decreased to 8.3 per cent of total loans in November 2023<\/strong> (from 9.5 per cent in 2022), while the cumulative provisions increased to 51 per cent in the same month (from 47.5 per cent).<br \/>\nAdditionally, restructured loans decreased to 7.2 per cent of total loans in November 2023, compared to 11.2 per cent in 2022.<br \/>\nDespite the above developments, risks to asset quality persist, it adds, as household and corporate debt remains elevated, standing at a high 200.5 per cent of GDP in September 2023 (though reduced from 248 per cent a year earlier).<br \/>\nThe capital adequacy of the banking sector is currently healthy, with a CET-1 ratio averaging 21.4 per cent at the end of September 2023.<br \/>\n<strong>Cypriot banks have made significant progress in deleveraging,<\/strong> the agency said, with the banking sector\u2019s assets-to-GDP ratio decreasing to 215.2 per cent in November 2023, from 229.5 per cent a year earlier.<br \/>\nMoving forward, CI Ratings expects<strong> real GDP to increase by an average of 2.6 per cent in 2024-25,<\/strong> benefiting from improved domestic demand and continued investment in various economic activities, partly supported by the EU funding and inflows of foreign private capital.<br \/>\nThe <strong>GDP per capita is high at \u20ac32,097<\/strong> in 2023 and is considered a supportive factor for the ratings.<br \/>\nThe current account deficit is expected to have increased to 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2023, while external debt, excluding special purpose entities (SPEs), decreased to 195.8 per cent of GDP in September 2023, from 222.7 per cent in December 2022.<br \/>\nThe rating could be upgraded by more than one notch in 12-24 months, the agency states, if the government implements comprehensive structural reforms leading to improved revenue mobilisation, increased institutional strength, and faster resolution of legacy NPLs.<br \/>\nUpside pressure on the ratings could also stem from a lower-than-expected current account deficit and a faster reduction in government and external debt.<br \/>\nConversely, the <strong>outlook could be revised to stable over the next 12 months<\/strong> if fiscal performances weaken and the dynamics of public debt reverse, for example, due to a change in policy direction, reduced fiscal discipline, or significantly weaker economic performances, or if adverse shocks lead to mild deterioration in public or external finances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Capital Intelligence Ratings has revised its long-term foreign currency rating outlook for the Republic of Cyprus from stable to positive. The government&#8217;s debt has been reduced due to consistent primary fiscal surpluses and proactive debt management.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6393,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[1863,1902,39,2690,3004,611,1766,40,1512,66,2134,3348,41,1625,3832,3,1547,2369,898,2190,3179,645,26,203,379,3935,4196,4519,304,696,60,211,250,3330,415,4518,3767,793,1823,2828,899,1401,2753,900,4074,34,1473,3331,70,71,2462,2528,3775,3840,583,2252,3255,3225,3126,1538,1901,2529,4054,1824,4409,1827,1832,1358,65,1065,4185,1682,1006],"class_list":["post-6392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cyprus","tag-assessments","tag-bank","tag-bank-of-cyprus","tag-banking-sector","tag-banking-system","tag-banks","tag-budget","tag-capital-intelligence","tag-cash","tag-central-bank-of-cyprus","tag-challenges","tag-change","tag-ci-ratings","tag-construction","tag-currency","tag-cyprus","tag-cyprus-economy","tag-data","tag-debt","tag-decline","tag-downside-risks","tag-economic-growth","tag-economy","tag-environment","tag-eu","tag-expenditures","tag-fiscal-discipline","tag-fiscal-outlook","tag-funding","tag-gdp","tag-gdp-growth","tag-gesy","tag-google","tag-google-news","tag-government","tag-government-debt-reduction","tag-growth","tag-healthcare","tag-increase","tag-institutions","tag-interest","tag-interest-rates","tag-investment","tag-loan","tag-loans","tag-markets","tag-mild","tag-news","tag-non-performing-loans","tag-npl","tag-performances","tag-performing-loans","tag-pressure","tag-progress","tag-public-sector","tag-rating-outlook","tag-reforms","tag-republic-of-cyprus","tag-resilience","tag-resolution","tag-restructured","tag-restructured-loans","tag-risk","tag-sectors","tag-social-welfare","tag-statement","tag-subsidies","tag-support","tag-surplus","tag-tax","tag-tax-revenues","tag-technology","tag-trade"],"acf":{"keyphrase":"","keywords":"","sourceimg":"","country-category":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- 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