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The oil price is now over $86\/barrel. According to the IEA this is due to tight supply, increasing demand, the Middle East conflict and Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. It is expected to carry on increasing further.<\/p>\n
The IEA now admits that global oil markets face a supply deficit throughout 2024, instead of the surplus it expected previously.<\/p>\n
In effect, the IEA has reversed its earlier position and now agrees with OPEC, saying that oil markets face supply deficits all this year, on the back of OPEC+ cuts and increases in global demand.<\/p>\n
But the IEA forecasts crude consumption to increase by 1.3million barrels per day (b\/d) this year, while Opec has maintained its growth estimates of 2.25 million b\/d for 2024.<\/p>\n
The US is currently producing more crude oil than any other country, ever. It averaged 12.9 million b\/d in 2023, with Saudi Arabia and Russia close to 10 million b\/d.<\/p>\n
Oil and gas executives expect slower transition to net-zero. New survey shows geopolitical turmoil, tough macroeconomic conditions and AI spurring shifts in energy markets.<\/p>\n
Reflecting this, oil majors are adjusting their net-zero transition plans. Shell now aims to reduce its net carbon intensity by 15%-20% by 2030, compared with its previous goal of 20%.<\/p>\n
Adnoc and BP have suspended their $2 billion bid for a stake in Israel\u2019s NewMed Energy \u2013 as a result of the ongoing conflict in Gaza \u2013 but say they remain interested.<\/p>\n
On 14 February Adnoc and BP announced a new JV centered on Egypt.<\/p>\n
With war in Ukraine and tensions in the Red Sea, energy analysts now believe European refineries may have a profitable future after all, thanks to elevated margins for refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline.<\/p>\n
On 13 March there were a number of drone strikes by Ukraine on refineries inside Russia knocking down 370,500 b\/d refining capacity.<\/p>\n
Falling refining capacity has pushed up premiums for diesel ahead of crude, by about $30\/b.<\/p>\n
Pressing ahead with its decarbonisation plans, Europe will have reduced its crude distillation capacity by about 7% by 2026 compared with levels in 2020. As a result, Europe is now becoming more reliant on imports of refined products, making it more vulnerable to supply shocks such as the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Many suppliers from Asia are taking a longer route to Europe via southern Africa.<\/p>\n
IEA vs OPEC: The battle between the two oil market forecasters for oil analytics supremacy continues, reflecting contrasting biases. The IEA\u2019s influence on energy policy decisions has sometimes been seen to align forecasts with desired policy outcomes. On the other hand OPEC is oil-biased.<\/p>\n
Top oil executives and ministers descend on Houston this week emboldened by blockbuster mergers, stable oil prices and less pressure for a large-scale move to clean fuels.<\/p>\n
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said \u201cEveryone wants to reduce emissions, but nobody wants to pay for it\u201d.<\/p>\n
Shell CEO, Wael Sawan said: We still rely too much on chance about global energy security\u201d.<\/p>\n
He added that LNG will play a critical role in Shell\u2019s future. He said LNG currently makes up around 13% of gas sales but was expected to grow to around 20% in the coming 15 to 20 years.<\/p>\n
Saudi Aramco\u2019s CEO has criticized energy transition, urging a more realistic, consumer-focused, approach, highlighting renewables\u2019 limitations and advocating for efficient hydrocarbon use.<\/p>\n
He said, \u201cwe should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions\u201d.<\/p>\n
US Secretary of Energy Granholm: \u201cFirst, meet the energy needs of today \u2014 keep the lights on. Second, let\u2019s move into the realities of tomorrow\u201d.<\/p>\n
Wind\u2019s dirty secret: wind turbine blades can\u2019t be recycled. A wind turbine\u2019s blades can be longer than a Boeing 747 wing. But where do they end up when they aren\u2019t in use? They are piling up in landfills!<\/p>\n
According to the IEA, methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023. But announced pledge & policies, including those made at COP28, have the potential to put them into decline soon.<\/p>\n
Hydrogen in industry: Germany has opened its first EUR 4 billion bidding round for \u2018Carbon Contracts for Difference\u2019. Industrial users can now bid for subsidies to switch to green H2 or other low-emissions technology.<\/p>\n
Engie urges caution on pace of hydrogen deployment, warning that applications in hard-to-abate industries will take longer than previously expected to develop.<\/p>\n
Even though the world has been pressing for a reduction in energy emissions, emissions from farm-to-fork are growing. Food systems\u00a0account for about a third of all global greenhouse gas emissions, with\u00a0livestock\u00a0the biggest driver.<\/p>\n
Jim Skea, the head of UN\u2019s climate body, IPCC, said the world is in \u2018unknown territory\u2019 after heat records. He said \u2018more science needed\u2019 to understand extraordinary temperatures, after the critical benchmark of 1.5o<\/sup>C above pre-industrial levels was breached last year<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Dr Charles Ellinas<\/strong> is <\/strong>Senior Fellow<\/strong> at the <\/strong>Global Energy Center<\/strong>, <\/strong><\/em>Atlantic Council<\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n X: <\/strong>@CharlesEllinas<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" – The oil price is now over \/barrel due to tight supply, increasing demand, Middle East conflict, and Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, with expectations of further increases.
\n– The International Energy Agency (IEA) now predicts a global oil supply deficit throughout 2024, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
\n– The IEA and OPEC agree on supply deficits due to OPEC+ cuts and rising global demand.
\n– The IEA forecasts a crude consumption increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (b\/d) this year, while OPEC maintains its growth estimate at 2.25 million b\/d for 2024.
\n– The US is producing more crude oil than any other country, averaging 12.9 million b\/d in 2023, with Saudi Arabia and Russia close to 10 million b\/d.
\n– Oil and gas executives expect a slower transition to net-zero due to geopolitical turmoil, macroeconomic conditions, and AI.
\n– Shell aims to reduce its net carbon intensity by 15%-20% by 2030, adjusting from its previous goal of 20%.
\n– Adnoc and BP suspended their billion bid for a stake in Israel\u2019s NewMed Energy due to the conflict in Gaza but remain interested.
\n– Adnoc and BP announced a new joint venture centered on Egypt on 14 February.
\n– European refineries may have a profitable future due to elevated margins for refined oil products like diesel and gasoline, amidst war in Ukraine and Red Sea tensions.
\n– On 13 March, Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russian refineries, reducing refining capacity by 370,500 b\/d.
\n– Falling refining capacity has increased diesel premiums ahead of crude by about \/b.
\n– By 2026, Europe will have reduced its crude distillation capacity by about 7% compared to 2020, becoming more reliant on imports of refined products and more vulnerable to supply shocks.
\n– The IEA and OPEC continue to have contrasting biases in oil market forecasts.
\n– CERAWeek in Houston saw top oil executives and ministers discuss the energy sector, with less pressure for a large-scale move to clean fuels.
\n– ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods emphasized the cost concerns in reducing emissions.
\n– Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted the critical role of LNG in Shell\u2019s future.
\n– Saudi Aramco\u2019s CEO criticized the energy transition approach, advocating for efficient hydrocarbon use.
\n– US Secretary of Energy Granholm emphasized meeting current energy needs while preparing for future realities.
\n– Wind turbine blades, which can’t be recycled, are accumulating in landfills.
\n– Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023, according to the IEA.
\n– Germany has opened its first EUR 4 billion bidding round for \u2018Carbon Contracts for Difference\u2019 for industrial users to switch to green hydrogen or other low-emissions technology.
\n– Engie urges caution on the pace of hydrogen deployment in hard-to-abate industries.
\n– Global greenhouse gas emissions from food systems are growing, with livestock being the biggest driver.
\n– Jim Skea of the IPCC stated the world is in ‘unknown territory’ after heat records were broken, indicating more science is needed to understand extraordinary temperatures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[589,842,403,1234,1612,777,2402,311,279,2577,49,2190,3066,2259,358,1898,1052,201,2515,145,308,576,2359,496,1605,1823,1991,187,1494,299,34,1346,1897,69,3354,3352,2057,1493,2983,1033,701,2331,19,949,3260,827,796,3269,1832,3353,65,1229,2907,1682,443,468,618,17,414,380,293,3306,18,444],"class_list":["post-5430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-other","tag-africa","tag-ai","tag-asia","tag-attacks","tag-boeing","tag-bp","tag-caution","tag-columnists","tag-comment","tag-concerns","tag-crude-oil","tag-decline","tag-diesel","tag-egypt","tag-energy","tag-energy-sector","tag-energy-security","tag-europe","tag-february","tag-gaza","tag-geopolitical","tag-germany","tag-green-hydrogen","tag-houthi","tag-imports","tag-increase","tag-industry","tag-international","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-israel","tag-markets","tag-meeting","tag-methane-emissions","tag-middle-east","tag-net-zero-transition","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-prices","tag-opec","tag-policy-decisions","tag-prices","tag-red-sea","tag-renewables","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-sea","tag-security","tag-shipping","tag-strikes","tag-subsidies","tag-supply-deficit","tag-surplus","tag-survey","tag-suspended","tag-technology","tag-temperatures","tag-tensions","tag-top","tag-ukraine","tag-un","tag-us","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine","tag-world","tag-zero"],"acf":{"keyphrase":"","keywords":"","sourceimg":"","country-category":""},"yoast_head":"\n