{"id":2629,"date":"2024-01-30T17:04:12","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T15:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ch.jfdi.cc\/?p=2629"},"modified":"2024-01-30T17:04:12","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T15:04:12","slug":"imf-says-global-soft-landing-in-sight-lifts-2024-growth-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ch.jfdi.cc\/?p=2629","title":{"rendered":"IMF says global \u2018soft landing\u2019 in sight, lifts 2024 growth outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday edged its forecast for global economic growth higher, upgrading the outlook for both the United States and China \u2013 the world\u2019s two largest economies \u2013 and citing faster-than-expected easing of inflation.The IMF\u2019s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the global lender\u2019s updated World Economic Outlook showed that a \u201csoft landing\u201d was in sight, but overall growth and global trade still remained lower than the historical average.\u201cThe global economy continues to display remarkable resilience, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. The chance of a \u2018soft landing\u2019 has increased,\u201d Gourinchas told reporters in Johannesburg, adding, \u201cWe are very far from a global recession scenario.\u201dBut he cautioned that the base of expansion was slow and risks remained, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea that could disrupt commodity prices and supply chains.Delays in announced fiscal consolidation in what Gourinchas called \u201cthe biggest global election year in history\u201d could boost economic activity but might also spur inflation, he added.The IMF said the improved outlook was supported by stronger private and public spending despite tight monetary conditions, as well as increased labor force participation, mended supply chains and cheaper energy and commodity prices.The IMF forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2024, up two-tenths of a percentage point from its October forecast, and said it expected unchanged growth of 3.2% in 2025. The historical average for the 2000-2019 period was 3.8%.Global trade was expected to expand by 3.3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, well below the historical average of 4.9%, with gains weighed down by thousands of fresh trade restrictions.The IMF stuck with its October forecast for headline inflation of 5.8% for 2024, but lowered the 2025 forecast to 4.4% from 4.6% in October. Excluding Argentina, which has seen inflation spike, global headline inflation would be lower, Gourinchas said.Advanced economies should see average inflation of 2.6%, down four-tenths of a percentage point from the October forecast, with inflation set to reach central bank targets of 2% in 2025. By contrast, inflation would average 8.1% in emerging market and developing economies in 2024, before easing to 6% in 2025.The IMF said average oil prices would drop 2.3% in 2024, versus the 0.7% decline it had predicted in October, and said prices were expected to drop 4.8% in 2025.<strong>RED SEA ATTACKS<\/strong>\u201cStaying on the path to a soft landing will not be easy,\u201d Gourinchas said, noting that new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks, including continued attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, could prolong tight monetary conditions.Gourinchas told reporters the IMF was watching developments in the Middle East closely, but the broader economic impact appeared \u201crelatively limited\u201d as of now.\u201cIt doesn\u2019t seem to represent, as of now, a major source of potentially reigniting supply-side inflation,\u201d he said.The United States got one of the biggest upgrades in the January update of the IMF outlook, with its GDP now forecast to expand by 2.1% in 2024 versus the 1.5% forecast in October. Growth was expected to ease to 1.7% in 2025.Gourinchas credited fiscal support and consumer spending for the upgrade, but said the IMF had warned Washington that some of its subsidies from domestic producers and other industrial policies could violate global trade rules.The euro area got a downgrade, and was now expected to grow just 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, with the biggest European economy \u2013 Germany \u2013 expected to see minimal GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 instead of the 0.9% forecast in October.China\u2019s GDP was expected to grow by 4.6% in 2024, an upward revision of four-tenths of a percentage point from October, and 4.1% in 2025. Gourinchas said the boost reflected significant fiscal support from the authorities, and a less-severe-than-expected slowdown stemming from the property sector.The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England were expected to start lowering interest rates gradually in the second half of 2024, Gourinchas said, adding, \u201cWe are not quite there yet.\u201dThe Bank of Japan was expected to maintain low-interest rates, and that was \u201cappropriate,\u201d but the IMF had told it to be ready to raise rates if inflation spiked, he said.Gourinchas added that markets had been \u201cexcessively optimistic\u201d on the prospects for early interest rate cuts by major central banks, and a repricing could increase long-term interest rates and trigger more rapid fiscal consolidation that would weigh on growth prospects.Emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 4.1% in 2024, with emerging and developing Europe getting an upgrade due to stronger-than-expected growth in Russia on the back of military spending for the war in Ukraine.Russia\u2019s GDP was expected to grow 2.6% in 2024, 1.5 percentage points more than expected in October, with growth seen easing to 1.1% in 2025. The IMF said there could be further revisions since the numbers were preliminary and there were questions about the extent of Russia\u2019s fiscal stimulus.Negative growth in Argentina depressed the forecast for the Latin America and Caribbean region, with growth seen dropping to 1.9% in 2024, four-tenths of a percentage point lower than in October. Growth should edge higher to 2.5% in 2025, the IMF said.Gourinchas said the global outlook reflected more balanced upside and downside risks, with the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East offset by the prospect that lower fuel prices could help inflation fall faster than expected.\u201cWe see them as broadly balanced at this point,\u201d he said, noting that a lot of the downside risks \u2013 especially with respect to disinflation \u2013 seen a year ago had not materialized.(Reuters)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for global economic growth, citing faster-than-expected easing of inflation. The IMF&#8217;s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, stated that a &#8220;soft landing&#8221; was in sight, but overall growth and global trade still remained lower than the historical average. The IMF forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.9%, and expected global trade to expand by 3.3% in 2024. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea could disrupt commodity prices and supply chains. The IMF also warned that delays in fiscal consolidation and the potential violation of global trade rules by certain countries could impact economic activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[47,48,611,486,3,645,26,358,599,201,51,52,696,60,308,576,658,697,67,613,374,187,34,69,284,164,19,468,17,544,42,170,293,18],"class_list":["post-2629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cyprus","tag-bank-of-england","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-banks","tag-china","tag-cyprus","tag-economic-growth","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-european-central-bank","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gdp","tag-gdp-growth","tag-geopolitical","tag-germany","tag-history","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-insider-economy","tag-interest-rate","tag-international","tag-markets","tag-middle-east","tag-property","tag-red-sea-attacks","tag-russia","tag-tensions","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states","tag-upgrade","tag-violation","tag-war","tag-world"],"acf":{"keyphrase":"","keywords":"","sourceimg":"","country-category":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- 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