An objective assessment of the plans is not yet available. The agreement’s figures suggest that the coalition wants to increase public spending, in the short term (especially 2025) even further than the previous government. Over a longer time horizon, spending will decrease somewhat, with more politically painful plans implemented later in the cabinet period.The targeted government deficit of 2.8% of GDP increases the likelihood that the government will not remain within the European 3% deficit norms, especially in the event of an economic downturn. Also, a sizeable share of the budget cuts seems unrealistic (scrapping 22% of civil servants, reducing the EU contribution, reducing asylum costs). In this case, the coalition states it would make ad-hoc cuts to the budgets on a pro-rata basis. This may strengthen a cyclical economic downturn and could lead to political tensions and policy uncertainty.
